Establishment and validation of a predictive model for mortality within 30 days in patients with sepsis-induced blood...

To establish and validate an individualized nomogram to predict the probability of death within 30 days in patients with sepsis-induced blood pressure drop would help clinical physicians to pay attention to those with higher risk of death after admission to wards.

A total of 1023 patients who were admitted to the Dongyang People's Hospital, China, enrolled in this study. They were divided into model group (717 patients) and validation group (306 patients). The study included 13 variables. The independent risk factors leading to death within 30 days were screened by univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analyses and used for Nomogram. The discrimination and correction of the prediction model were assessed by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration chart. The clinical effectiveness of the prediction model was assessed by the Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).

Seven variables were independent risk factors, included peritonitis, respiratory failure, cardiac insufficiency, consciousness disturbance, tumor history, albumin level, and creatinine level at the time of admission. The area under the ROC curve of the model group and validation group was 0.834 and 0.836. The P value of the two sets of calibration charts was 0.702 and 0.866. The DCA curves of the model group and validation group were above the two extreme (insignificant) curves.

The model described in this study could effectively predict the death of patients with sepsis-induced blood pressure drop.