Identification of a Risk Profile for New-Onset Diabetes After Acute Pancreatitis

There is a paucity of studies evaluating predictors of new-onset diabetes mellitus (DM) after acute pancreatitis (AP-related DM). We used a population-based database to evaluate predictors of AP-related DM.

The Nationwide Readmissions Database (2010-2014) was used to identify all nondiabetic adults with an index primary diagnosis of AP. Multiple exclusions were applied to identify cohorts with and without AP-related DM. A case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for developing AP-related DM within the calendar year.

We identified 2510 subjects with AP-related DM and 40,308 controls with AP who did not develop DM. Multivariable analysis revealed that increasing age (50-64 years; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.60), male sex (aOR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.03-1.40), lowest income quartile (aOR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.18-1.84), Elixhauser comorbidity index of 3 or higher (aOR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.23-1.75), components of metabolic syndrome (aOR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.21-3.70), severe AP (aOR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.34-1.90), and recurrent AP (aOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.24-1.72) were independently associated with increased risk of AP-related DM.

These population-level variables predictive of developing AP-related DM can potentially identify patients who may benefit from closer follow-up, intensive education, and implementation of preventative strategies.