Identifying 'win-win-win' futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• System Dynamics Modeling
• Sustainable Food Systems

Background:

• Food systems require adaptation for sustainability and equity, particularly in developing countries.
• Focus is shifting from producer-centric value chains to consumer-level availability and affordability of nutritious foods.
• Agricultural value chains are complex, with potential for unintended producer-consumer trade-offs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a system dynamics model to analyze value chain trade-offs in horticultural aggregation schemes.
• To identify "win-win-win" scenarios benefiting fruit and vegetable availability, farmer profits, and organizational sustainability.
• To evaluate the impact of internal aggregation upgrades and external enabling environment changes.

Main Methods:

• System dynamics modeling framework applied to the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme in Bihar, India.
• Simulation of production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing processes.
• Exploration of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories for two internal and two external upgrade scenarios.

Main Results:

• Internal aggregation upgrades alone do not guarantee "win-win-win" futures.
• Narrow scenarios exist where increased supply to retail markets also supports farmer profits.
• Scaling aggregation and introducing cold storage can lead to unintended negative producer-consumer trade-offs.

Conclusions:

• System dynamics modeling can capture complex value chain dynamics and trade-offs.
• Identifying "win-win-win" futures requires considering both internal dynamics and external scenarios.
• Careful planning is needed to mitigate unintended consequences in food system upgrades.