Thermal performance under constant temperatures can accurately predict insect development times across naturally...

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Physiology
• Developmental Biology

Background:

• External environmental conditions significantly influence ectotherm biological rates by altering body temperatures.
• Predicting ectotherm performance traits, like growth and development, in natural settings is challenging due to the complexity of fluctuating environments compared to controlled laboratory conditions.

Discussion:

• This study demonstrates that development rate in the butterfly Pieris napi can be accurately predicted in field conditions using models developed under constant laboratory temperatures.
• Accurate predictions across different microhabitats require accounting for non-linear reaction norms, spatial microclimate heterogeneity, and temporal temperature variations.

Key Insights:

• Development rate, a crucial fitness trait for insects, can be reliably forecasted using laboratory-calibrated models in natural environments.
• The study highlights the critical importance of incorporating non-linear thermal performance curves and environmental heterogeneity for precise ecological predictions.
• Empirical data align with published and simulated results, reinforcing the predictive power of the models.

Outlook:

• Future research should focus on refining models to better capture the interplay of non-linearity and environmental heterogeneity in predicting ectotherm responses.
• Understanding these factors is essential for predicting insect population dynamics and their responses to climate change.
• The findings suggest that, beyond direct thermal effects, the impact of temperature fluctuations on insect development may be less significant than previously assumed.