The effect of species, size, and fire intensity on tree mortality within a catastrophic bushfire complex

Infrequent, high-intensity disturbances can have profound impacts on forested landscapes, changing forest structure and altering relative species abundance. However, due to their rarity and the logistical challenges of directly observing such extreme events, both the spatial variability of disturbance intensity and the species-specific responses to this variability are poorly understood. We used observed patterns of mortality across a fire severity gradient following the 2009 Black Saturday fires in southeastern Australia to simultaneously estimate (1) species- and size-specific susceptibility to fire-induced mortality and (2) fire intensity. We found broad variation in patterns of fire susceptibility among the 10 tree species (five eucalypts and five non-eucalypts) sufficiently abundant for analysis. Among the eucalypts, Eucalyptus obliqua was the most resistant to fire-induced mortality, with trees of ~25 cm DBH having a 50% probability of surviving even the most intense fires. In contrast, E. regnans had 100% mortality across all size classes when subjected to high-intensity fire. Basal resprouting occurred in six of the study species and, when accounted for, fundamentally changed the mortality profile of these species, highlighting the importance of resprouting as an adaptation to fire in these landscapes. In particular, the two iconic cool temperate rainforest species (Nothofagus cunninghami and Atherosperma moschatum) were strong resprouters (~45% of individuals were able to resprout after being top-killed by fire). We also found evidence for compositional shifts in regeneration above threshold values of fire intensity in cool temperate rainforest and mixed forest sites, both of which have important conservation values within these landscapes. The observed patterns of species- and size-specific susceptibility to fire-induced mortality may be used to anticipate changes in forest structure and composition in the future. In addition, they may also help guide forest management strategies that reduce the length of time individual trees are exposed to potentially lethal fires, thereby increasing the resilience of these forests to future fires.