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Determinants of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19; a prospective cohort study from Pakistan

Samreen Sarfaraz1, Quratulain Shaikh2, Syed Ghazanfar Saleem3

  • 1Infectious Disease Department, The Indus Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan.

Plos One
|May 27, 2021
PubMed

Insights

COVID-19 patients over 60, with low oxygen saturation, and elevated procalcitonin levels faced higher in-hospital mortality. These factors significantly increased the risk of death among hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients.

Area of Science:

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Critical Care Medicine
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant in-hospital mortality globally.
  • Identifying predictors of mortality is crucial for managing severe cases.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients in Karachi, Pakistan.
  • To identify determinants associated with mortality in these patients.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective cohort study of 170 adult COVID-19 patients from March to June 2020.
  • Data collected on demographics, clinical presentation, laboratory values, and outcomes.
  • Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed.

Main Results:

  • Overall in-hospital mortality was 39%.
  • Non-survivors were older (≥60 years), had lower oxygen saturation (<93%), and higher procalcitonin levels (>2ng/ml).
  • Multivariable analysis identified age, low oxygen saturation, and high procalcitonin as independent predictors of mortality.

Conclusions:

  • Age, low peripheral oxygen saturation, and elevated serum procalcitonin are significant predictors of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.
  • Multisystem organ failure and respiratory failure were the primary causes of death.
  • Further large-scale prospective studies are recommended to validate these findings.

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