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Climate models exhibit tipping points, shifting between basic and excited states. This study reveals how gradual forcing changes delay tipping, demonstrating rate-induced tipping in excitable ocean systems.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography
  • Complex Systems

Background:

  • Excitable systems exhibit distinct basic and excited states with transitions.
  • Understanding tipping points is crucial for climate dynamics and predicting state changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate tipping dynamics in a low-order excitable ocean model.
  • Analyze the influence of forcing parameter steepness on tipping behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Ensemble simulations to determine the pullback attractor (PBA) and its properties.
  • Analysis of tipping time and forcing amplitude as functions of parameter steepness.
  • Examination of rate-induced tipping under periodic perturbations.

Main Results:

  • Decreasing forcing steepness delays tipping time and reduces critical forcing amplitude.
  • Rate-induced tipping observed, with amplitude depending on perturbation period.
  • Nonlinear resonance occurs at periods near the relaxation oscillation timescale.
  • Coexisting PBAs and initial state independence found in specific parameter spaces.

Conclusions:

  • Parameter drift, analogous to anthropogenic forcing, impacts tipping dynamics.
  • The study provides insights into rate-induced tipping mechanisms in excitable climate systems.
  • Findings contribute to understanding abrupt climate change events and system resilience.