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A risk score for pericarditis recurrence
Emilia Lazarou1, George Lazaros1, Alexios S Antonopoulos1
1First Cardiology Department, School of Medicine, Hippokration General Hospital, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
European Journal of Clinical Investigation
|May 29, 2021
Summary
A new risk score identifies patients at high risk for recurrent pericarditis. This tool uses six factors to predict individual recurrence risk after acute pericarditis.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Internal Medicine
- Clinical Prediction Models
Background:
- Recurrent pericarditis poses a clinical challenge due to uncertain risk factors.
- Accurate prediction of recurrence is crucial for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a risk score for predicting pericarditis recurrence.
- To identify independent predictors of recurrence in patients with acute pericarditis.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort of 262 patients with first episode of acute pericarditis.
- Data collection included demographics, clinical, imaging, and laboratory parameters.
- Multivariable logistic regression and cross-validation were used to develop and assess the risk score.
Main Results:
- Six independent predictors identified: age, effusion size, platelet count, IVC collapse, corticosteroid use, and heart rate.
- The developed risk score demonstrated good predictive performance (c-index 0.740).
- Patients with high scores showed significantly higher recurrence rates (69.8%) compared to low scores (21.3%).
Conclusions:
- A simple, validated risk score can predict individualized recurrence risk in acute pericarditis.
- This tool aids in identifying patients who may benefit from closer monitoring or specific interventions.
- The score is based on readily available clinical and laboratory variables.
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