All-cause mortality prediction models in type 2 diabetes: applicability in the early stage of disease

The rate of all-cause mortality is twofold higher in type 2 diabetes than in the general population. Being able to identify patients with the highest risk from the very beginning of the disease would help tackle this burden.

We tested whether ENFORCE, an established prediction model of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes, performs well also in two independent samples of patients with early-stage disease prospectively followed up.

ENFORCE's survival C-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI: 0.72-0.89) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.68-0.87) in both samples. Calibration was also good. Very similar results were obtained with RECODe, an alternative prediction model of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.

In conclusion, our data show that two well-established prediction models of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes can also be successfully applied in the early stage of the disease, thus becoming powerful tools for educated and timely prevention strategies for high-risk patients.