Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: An update to 2019

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1990-2019. It is a sequel to the paper Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2009 (Evans (2011), which covers the three decades 1980-2009. The present paper discards the data for the 1980s, but adds the data for 2010-2019. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2019, together with Norway and Switzerland. The source of the recent data is largely the European Union Agency for Railways. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre was -5.6 % per year from 1990-2019, with a 95 % confidence interval of -7.1 % to -4.2 %. The estimated accident rate in 2019 was 0.85 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, which represents a fall of 78 % since 1990. This gives an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in Europe in 2019 of 3.89. The data and results for 2010-2019 closely match the extrapolation of the results for 1990-2009, so that in 2009 extrapolation would have given a good forward projection for 2019. By the same argument this paper gives a forward projection of the mean number of accidents in 2029 of 2.12, assuming no change in train-kilometres, or pro-rata changes with changes in train-kilometres. The paper investigates the causes of accidents. A notable finding is that the proportion of accidents caused by signals passed at danger (SPADs) fell from 40 % in 1990-1999 to 21 % in 2010-2019. This is probably due to the increasing deployment of train protection systems. The number of fatalities in individual accidents has a skew distribution: most accidents have a small number of fatalities, but a few have a large number. The overall observed number of fatalities per accident is 4.23, and there is no indication that this mean changes with time. This implies that the mean number of fatalities per year has the same downward trend of 5.6 % per year as the mean number of accidents per year.