Race Performance Prediction from the Physiological Profile in National Level Youth Cross-Country Cyclists

Cross-country mountain biking is an Olympic sport discipline with high popularity among elite and amateur cyclists. However, there is a scarcity of data regarding the key determinants of performance, particularly in young cross-country cyclists. The aim of this study was to examine the physiological profile of youth national-level cross-country cyclists and to determine those variables that were able to best predict the performance in an official race. Ten youth cross-country cyclists of a national team underwent a complete evaluation that included anthropometric assessments, laboratory tests to evaluate the wattage at blood lactate thresholds and at maximal oxygen uptake (PO_VO2max), and field tests to make an in-depth power profile of the athletes. The data obtained in the above-mentioned tests was analysed along with total and partial race times during a competition belonging to the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) calendar. In the present study, large and statistically significant correlations (r = -0.67 to -0.95, p ≤ 0.05) were found between maximal and submaximal indices of aerobic fitness and cycling performance, especially when they were normalised to body mass. A multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the wattage at 2 mmol/L, 4 mmol/L and PO_VO2max were able to explain 82% of the variance in total race time. In summary, the results of this study support the use of maximal and submaximal indices of aerobic power as predictors of performance in youth cross-country cyclists.