Energy Balance and Risk of Mortality in Spanish Older Adults

Clinical data on the direct health effects of energy deficit or surplus beyond its impact on body weight are scarce. We aimed to assess the association with all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality of (1) sustained energy deficit or surplus, calculated according to each individual's en-ergy intake (EI) and theoretical energy expenditure (TEE), and (2) mid-term change in total EI in a prospective study. In 7119 participants in the PREDIMED Study (PREvención con DIeta MEDi-terránea) with a mean age of 67 years, energy intake was derived from a 137-item food frequency questionnaire. TEE was calculated as a function of age, sex, height, body weight and physical ac-tivity. The main exposure was the proportion of energy requirement covered by energy intake, cumulative throughout the follow-up. The secondary exposure was the change in energy intake from baseline. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% con-fidence intervals for all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. Over a median follow-up of 4.8 years, there were 239 deaths (excluding the first 2 years). An energy intake exceeding energy needs was associated with an increase in mortality risk (continuous HR_{10% over energy needs} = 1.10; 95% CI 1.02, 1.18), driven by cardiovascular death (HR = 1.26; 95% CI 1.11, 1.43). However, consum-ing energy below estimated needs was not associated with a lower risk. Increments over time in energy intake were associated with greater all-cause mortality (HR_{10% increase} = 1.09; 95% CI 1.02, 1.17). However, there was no evidence that a substantial negative change in energy intake would reduce mortality risk. To conclude, in an older Mediterranean cohort, energy surplus or increase over a 5-year period was associated with greater risk of mortality, particularly cardiovascular mortality. Energy deficit, or reduction in energy intake over time were not associated with mortal-ity risk.