Soft Computing of a Medically Important Arthropod Vector with Autoregressive Recurrent and Focused Time Delay...

A central issue of public health strategies is the availability of decision tools to be used in the preventive management of the transmission cycle of vector-borne diseases. In this work, we present, for the first time, a soft system computing modeling approach using two dynamic artificial neural network (ANNs) models to describe and predict the non-linear incidence and time evolution of a medically important mosquito species, Culex sp., in Northern Greece. The first model is an exogenous non-linear autoregressive recurrent neural network (NARX), which is designed to take as inputs the temperature as an exogenous variable and mosquito abundance as endogenous variable. The second model is a focused time-delay neural network (FTD), which takes into account only the temperature variable as input to provide forecasts of the mosquito abundance as the target variable. Both models behaved well considering the non-linear nature of the adult mosquito abundance data. Although, the NARX model predicted slightly better (R = 0.623) compared to the FTD model (R = 0.534), the advantage of the FTD over the NARX neural network model is that it can be applied in the case where past values of the population system, here mosquito abundance, are not available for their forecasting.