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Simplified 6-month prediction scores for primary biliary cholangitis patients treated with ursodeoxycholic acid
Kanokwan Pinyopornpanish1,2, Pravallika Chadalavada3, Muhammad Talal Sarmini1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Objectives:
To develop a prognostic score evaluating treatment response at 6 months after ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) initiation in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients.
Methods:
Adult PBC patients who were newly prescribed UDCA at our institution (n = 292) were included. Significant determinants of liver-related adverse events in the multivariable Cox model were used for score development, weighted by β-coefficients. Discrimination ability was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. The performance of our model was compared to the previous models.
Results:
Our model included the following variables evaluated at 6 months: (1) alkaline phosphatase decline of less than 50% from baseline and >upper limit normal (ULN) (2 points); (2) bilirubin >ULN (2 points); (3) albumin
Conclusion:
This novel 6-month prognostic model showed good prognostic performance. Utilization of this score would identify patients with suboptimal responses to UDCA earlier.
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