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Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.

Yun Tao1, Jessica L Hite2, Kevin D Lafferty3

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Transient dynamics analyses are crucial for understanding and predicting infectious disease spread. Focusing on these non-asymptotic processes improves disease surveillance and management strategies for both human and wildlife health.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Movement Ecology
  • Parasitology
  • Disease Ecology

Background:

  • Understanding transient dynamics is vital for infectious disease transmission and persistence.
  • Non-asymptotic processes are key to timely evaluations of human and wildlife diseases.
  • Improved surveillance, prevention, and intervention strategies rely on analyzing transients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent epidemiological, movement ecology, and parasitology models.
  • To examine the role of transients in pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance across ecological scales.
  • To highlight how transient dynamics influence disease spread and host-pathogen interactions.

Main Methods:

  • Review and synthesis of recent models incorporating transient analyses.
  • Exploration of transient dynamics at individual host, within-host, population, and community levels.
  • Illustration of transient effects on transmission opportunities, immunity, pathogen load, connectivity, and protection.

Main Results:

  • Transient movement dynamics at the individual level impact transmission events.
  • Within-host energetic processes create transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential.
  • Transient population connectivity affects disease spread across networks, and species richness can offer transient protection.

Conclusions:

  • Transient analyses provide deeper insights into disease dynamics and raise new interdisciplinary research questions.
  • These analyses broaden the application of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.
  • Emphasizing non-asymptotic processes enhances our ability to combat epidemics and mitigate future outbreaks.