Quantification of Cytokine Storms During Virus Infections

Highly pathogenic virus infections usually trigger cytokine storms, which may have adverse effects on vital organs and result in high mortalities. The two cytokines interleukin (IL)-4 and interferon (IFN)-γ play key roles in the generation and regulation of cytokine storms. However, it is still unclear whether the cytokine with the largest induction amplitude is the same under different virus infections. It is unknown which is the most critical and whether there are any mathematical formulas that can fit the changing rules of cytokines. Three coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2), three influenza viruses (2009H1N1, H5N1 and H7N9), Ebola virus, human immunodeficiency virus, dengue virus, Zika virus, West Nile virus, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and enterovirus 71 were included in this analysis. We retrieved the cytokine fold change (FC), viral load, and clearance rate data from these highly pathogenic virus infections in humans and analyzed the correlations among them. Our analysis showed that interferon-inducible protein (IP)-10, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-17 are the most common cytokines with the largest induction amplitudes. Equations were obtained: the maximum induced cytokine (max) FC = IFN-γ FC × (IFN-γ FC/IL-4 FC) (if IFN-γ FC/IL-4 FC > 1); max FC = IL-4 FC (if IFN-γ FC/IL-4 FC < 1). For IFN-γ-inducible infections, 1.30 × log2 (IFN-γ FC) = log10 (viral load) - 2.48 - 2.83 × (clearance rate). The clinical relevance of cytokines and their antagonists is also discussed.