Satellite imagery and machine learning for identification of aridity risk in central Java Indonesia
Sri Yulianto Joko Prasetyo1, Kristoko Dwi Hartomo1, Mila Chrismawati Paseleng1
1Faculty of Information Technology, Satya Wacana Christian University, Salatiga, Central Java, Indonesia.
Peerj. Computer Science
|June 4, 2021
Summary
This study developed a software framework using machine learning (ML) to predict aridity from LANDSAT 8 images. Random Forest (RF) and CART algorithms proved effective in identifying drought-prone areas.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Remote Sensing
- Data Science
Background:
- Aridity and drought monitoring are crucial for environmental management.
- Vegetation Indices (VI) derived from satellite imagery offer valuable insights into vegetation health and water stress.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a software framework for predicting aridity using vegetation indices (VI) from LANDSAT 8 OLI images.
- To evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) algorithms, specifically Random Forest (RF) and Correlation and Regression Trees (CART), for aridity prediction.
- To compare RF and CART with other ML models like Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (k-nn), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS).
Main Methods:
- Image preprocessing of LANDSAT 8 OLI data.
- Calculation of various Vegetation Indices (VI) from satellite imagery.
- Application and comparison of ML algorithms (RF, CART, ANN, SVM, k-nn, MARS) for VI prediction.
- Accuracy assessment using Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
- Spatial interpolation of prediction results using Inverse Distance Weight (IDW).
Main Results:
- RF and CART algorithms demonstrated higher efficiency and effectiveness in predicting aridity compared to ANN, SVM, k-nn, and MARS.
- RF and CART achieved low prediction errors, with MAPE around 1.04%-1.05% and MSE as low as 0.05.
- Analysis of VI indicated widespread low vegetation areas, drought conditions, and low fire risk in the study region for 2020.
- The developed framework accurately predicts drought and land fire risks using VI data from LANDSAT 8 OLI imagery.
Conclusions:
- Machine learning algorithms, particularly RF and CART, provide accurate and stable predictions for drought and land fire risks.
- Vegetation Indices derived from LANDSAT 8 OLI imagery effectively capture vegetation condition and environmental factors relevant to aridity.
- The developed software framework offers a valuable tool for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.
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