GIS-based risk mapping of cutaneous leishmaniasis: a survey in an endemic area of Central Iran

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne infectious disease that is affected by various environmental agents. The main objective of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of CL incidence by using Geographical Information System (GIS). This is a cross-sectional study that was conducted during 5 years from 2014 to 2018 in Isfahan, Iran. We used the required data on each leishmaniasis patient that were recorded from 44 counties of Isfahan in the databases and archive of the Provincial Health Centre. We used GIS for determining the incidence of CL in the high-risk foci. Moran index was used to identify high risk points (clustering in similar values) compared to the values of neighborhood points. Hot spot analysis was conducted by Getis-Ord-Gi. The highest incidence of the disease occurred in the age group of 18-64 years and 61.6% of patients were male. According to seasonal distribution, autumn (58.6%) had the highest frequency. Time trend of incidence showed that it had both decreasing and increasing, and there was a sudden upward trend of disease in 2018 except only two counties. The hot spots were involved the central areas of the Isfahan province slightly toward to the north and southeast of the province. Moran index showed that the differences for all points were not significant (p-value>0.05). Varzaneh (placed in southeast of Isfahan) was the hottest spot and had the worst position for leishmaniasis compared to all years and all cities.