Influencing factors of PM_2.5 and O₃ from 2016 to 2020 based on DLNM and WRF-CMAQ

In this study, distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were built to characterize the non-linear exposure-lag-response relationship between the concentration of PM_2.5 and O₃ and multiple influencing factors, including basic meteorological elements and precursors. Then, a stratified analysis of different years, seasons, pollution levels, and wind direction was conducted. DLNMs and coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (WRF-CMAQ) were used to evaluate PM_2.5 and O₃ changes attributed to meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emissions comparing 2020 with 2016. As DLNMs showed, PM_2.5 pollution was promoted by low wind speed, high temperature, low humidity, and high concentrations of SO₂, NO₂, and O₃, among which NO₂ tended to be the dominant influencing factor. O₃ pollution was promoted by low wind speed, high temperature, low humidity, high concentration of PM_2.5 and low concentration of NO₂, among which temperature tended to be the dominant influencing factor. Moreover, north-south and easterly winds showed the greatest contribution to PM_2.5 and O₃, respectively. Both DLNMs and CMAQ showed that anthropogenic factors alleviated PM_2.5 pollution but aggravated O₃ pollution in 2020 in comparison with 2016, so did meteorological factors, but with smaller impacts. And anthropogenic influences were more evident in heavily polluted seasons for both PM_2.5 and O₃. This research may help understand the influencing factors of PM_2.5 and O₃ and provide scientific guide for abatement policies. Moreover, the good consistency in the results obtained from DLNMs and CMAQ indicated the reliability of the two models.