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COVID-19 third wave: a challenge for overburdened and underdeveloped healthcare system of Pakistan
Mohammad Ejaz1, Muhammad Ali Syed2
1Department of Microbiology, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Insights
The third wave of COVID-19 is increasing in Pakistan, with cases rising significantly in March 2021. This surge indicates a more infectious phase of the pandemic in the region.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Global COVID-19 waves show seasonal patterns, with a notable third wave emerging in early 2021.
- Pakistan experienced significant COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, with case rates fluctuating between June 2020 and March 2021.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the current trend of the COVID-19 third wave in Pakistan.
- To report the recent increase in COVID-19 cases and positive rates.
Main Methods:
- Data analysis of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Pakistan up to March 21, 2021.
- Monitoring of positive case rates from June 2020 to March 2021.
- Inclusion of data from the National Command and Operating Center (NCOC) for recent case increases.
Main Results:
- By March 21, 2021, Pakistan reported 630,471 cases and 13,863 deaths.
- COVID-19 positive rates peaked at 23% in June 2020, dropped to 1.7% in September 2020, and rose to 8% by March 19, 2021.
- A 68% increase in COVID-19 cases was observed in the 10 days preceding March 21, 2021.
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 third wave in Pakistan is characterized by an increasing and potentially more infectious trend.
- Urgent public health measures are likely necessary to curb the escalating transmission rates.
Background:
To the Editor, Countries around the globe have observed the dynamic pattern of COVID-19 associated morbidity and mortality in which the first wave was observed in spring 2020 that considerably moderated during the summer. The second wave emerged in fall 2020, which subsequently decreased in early 2021. But now COVID-19 third wave is on the line with an inclined rate and is considered more infectious in some of the countries [1]. In Pakistan, COVID-19 has caused 630,471 confirmed cases with about 13,863 deaths by 21 March 2021 as shown in Figure (a). The rate of positive cases was highest (23%) in June 2020, which dropped to 1.7% by September 2020. Later, it began to rise, reaching 7.45% in January 2021 and 3% in February 2021. Now it is on the rise again and already reached 8% by 19 March 2021 Figure (b). According to the National Command and Operating Center (NCOC) of Pakistan, COVID-19 cases rose to 22,018 in the last 10 days, which is a 68% increase in the cases from the proceeding 10 days, as shown in Figure c.
Discussion:
The author declares there is no conflict of interest.
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