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Large fluctuations in locational marginal prices.

T Nesti1,2, J Moriarty3, A Zocca4

  • 1CWI, Amsterdam 1098 XG, Netherlands.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|June 7, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study analyzes extreme price spikes in energy markets due to renewable energy fluctuations. It identifies how these locational marginal prices (LMPs) occur and ranks grid nodes by their risk of experiencing such spikes.

Keywords:
electricity prices forecastinglarge deviations theorylocational marginal pricesmultiparametric programmingoptimal power flowprice spikes

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Area of Science:

  • Energy Systems
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Power Grids

Background:

  • Wholesale energy markets are increasingly impacted by volatile renewable generation.
  • Large fluctuations in locational marginal prices (LMPs) can disrupt market stability.
  • Understanding extreme price events is crucial for grid management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causes of large fluctuations in locational marginal prices (LMPs).
  • To identify the most likely scenarios leading to extreme price spikes in power grids.
  • To rank power grid nodes based on their susceptibility to price spikes.

Main Methods:

  • Modeling LMPs as functions of stochastic renewable generation.
  • Utilizing large deviations theory to analyze extreme events.
  • Applying techniques to supply-demand matching in power grids.

Main Results:

  • Identified key factors contributing to extreme LMP fluctuations.
  • Developed a method to determine the most probable causes of price spikes.
  • Ranked power grid nodes by their likelihood of experiencing price spikes.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides insights into managing energy market volatility.
  • Findings aid in identifying and mitigating risks associated with renewable energy integration.
  • The methodology is validated on the IEEE 14-bus test case.