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Inferring environmental transmission using phylodynamics: a case-study using simulated evolution of an enteric
Daniel Dawson1, David Rasmussen2,3, Xinxia Peng2,4
1Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|June 8, 2021
Summary
Distinguishing direct and indirect transmission in epidemics is challenging. Phylodynamic methods can infer transmission routes, but pathogen ecology and population structure critically influence reconstruction accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Direct (host-to-host) and indirect (environmental) transmission routes often coexist in epidemics, making differentiation difficult.
- Phylodynamic reconstruction, integrating epidemiological and genomic data, offers a method to infer epidemic transmission trees.
- Environmental factors and differing pathogen evolution rates can complicate phylogenetic inference.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of phylodynamic methods in distinguishing direct and indirect transmission pathways.
- To investigate how pathogen evolution, environmental conditions, and transmission proportions impact phylogenetic inference.
- To assess the influence of pathogen lifestyle on transmission route reconstruction.
Main Methods:
- Simulated epidemics using a network-based transmission model incorporating direct and indirect transmission.
- Varied direct/indirect transmission proportions, host mutation rates, and environmental pathogen growth conditions.
- Reconstructed transmission trees using the phylodynamic tool SCOTTI (structured coalescent transmission tree inference).
Main Results:
- Accurate phylodynamic inference is limited by insufficient pathogen genetic diversity.
- Transmission routes and pathogen lifestyle significantly altered pathogen population structure.
- Reconstruction success and the ability to distinguish direct vs. indirect pathways were influenced by pathogen ecology.
Conclusions:
- Phylodynamic methods are valuable for inferring transmission routes but are sensitive to pathogen characteristics.
- Understanding pathogen ecology and population structure in both host and non-host environments is crucial for accurate phylodynamic analysis.
- Prior ecological knowledge enhances the reliability of phylodynamic inference in complex epidemic scenarios.
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