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Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data.

Nathan J Hostetter1, Nicholas J Lunn2, Evan S Richardson2

  • 1Washington Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.

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|June 9, 2021
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

A new age-structured model enhances wildlife population studies by integrating age and capture-recapture data. This approach improves estimates of survival, abundance, and population growth, revealing age-dependent survival and demographic shifts in polar bears.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Wildlife Management

Background:

  • Understanding individual attributes' influence on demographic processes is crucial for wildlife population studies.
  • Capture-recapture and age data are vital for investigating survival, reproduction, and viability hypotheses.
  • Existing models often lack age-specific details, limiting comprehensive population analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model integrating age and capture-recapture data.
  • To provide comprehensive insights into population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, and recruitment.
  • To apply the model to polar bear populations for conservation insights.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model.
  • Incorporated age and capture-recapture data into the model.
  • Applied the model to a multi-year polar bear study in western Hudson Bay (2012-2018).

Main Results:

  • The age-structured model improved precision for survival, recruitment, and abundance estimates compared to standard models.
  • Incorporating age data enhanced population growth rate precision and trend detection power.
  • Evidence of senescence in polar bear survival was found, with survival declining significantly in older age classes.
  • Cascading effects of recruitment classes on population age structure were detected.

Conclusions:

  • Age-structured Jolly-Seber models offer a flexible and powerful tool for ecological and evolutionary research.
  • The model improves the investigation of population dynamics and forecasting from capture-recapture data.
  • This approach is vital for wildlife management and conservation, especially in response to environmental changes like climate change.