Development and validation of consensus machine learning-based models for the prediction of novel small molecules as...

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease and the leading cause of death globally. The rapidly emerging cases of drug resistance among pathogenic mycobacteria have been a global threat urging the need of new drug discovery and development. However, considering the fact that the new drug discovery and development is commonly lengthy and costly processes, strategic use of the cutting-edge machine learning (ML) algorithms may be very supportive in reducing both the cost and time involved. Considering the urgency of new drugs for TB, herein, we have attempted to develop predictive ML algorithms-based models useful in the selection of novel potential small molecules for subsequent in vitro validation. For this purpose, we used the GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) TCAMS TB dataset comprising a total of 776 hits that were made publicly available to the wider scientific community through the ChEMBL Neglected Tropical Diseases (ChEMBL-NTD) database. After exploring the different ML classifiers, viz. decision trees (DT), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Bernoulli Naive Bayes (BNB), K-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and linear logistic regression (LLR), and ensemble learning models (bagging and Adaboost) for training the model using the GSK dataset, we concluded with three best models, viz. Adaboost decision tree (ABDT), RF classifier, and k-NN models that gave the top prediction results for both the training and test sets. However, during the prediction of the external set of known anti-tubercular compounds/drugs, it was realized that each of these models had some limitations. The ABDT model correctly predicted 22 molecules as actives, while both the RF and k-NN models predicted 18 molecules correctly as actives; a number of molecules were predicted as actives by two of these models, while the third model predicted these compounds as inactives. Therefore, we concluded that while deciding the anti-tubercular potential of a new molecule, one should rely on the use of consensus predictions using these three models; it may lessen the attrition rate during the in vitro validation. We believe that this study may assist the wider anti-tuberculosis research community by providing a platform for predicting small molecules with subsequent validation for drug discovery and development.