The impacts of precipitation patterns on dengue epidemics in Guangzhou city

Some studies have demonstrated that precipitation is an important risk factor of dengue epidemics. However, current studies mostly focused on a single precipitation variable, and few studies focused on the impact of precipitation patterns on dengue epidemics. This study aims to explore optimal precipitation patterns for dengue epidemics. Weekly dengue case counts and meteorological data from 2006 to 2018 in Guangzhou of China were collected. A generalized additive model with Poisson distribution was used to investigate the association between precipitation patterns and dengue. Precipitation patterns were defined as the combinations of three weekly precipitation variables: accumulative precipitation (Pre_A), the number of days with light or moderate precipitation (Pre_LMD), and the coefficient of precipitation variation (Pre_CV). We explored to identify optimal precipitation patterns for dengue epidemics. With a lead time of 10 weeks, minimum temperature, relative humidity, Pre_A, and Pre_LMD were positively associated with dengue, while Pre_CV was negatively associated with dengue. A precipitation pattern with Pre_A of 20.67-55.50 mm per week, Pre_LMD of 3-4 days per week, and Pre_CV less than 1.41 per week might be an optimal precipitation pattern for dengue epidemics in Guangzhou. The finding may be used for climate-smart early warning and decision-making of dengue prevention and control.