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Published on: May 12, 2023
Will achieving herd immunity be a road to success to end the COVID-19 pandemic?
Kin On Kwok1, Edward B McNeil2, Margaret Ting Fong Tsoi2
1JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.
Abstract:
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the availability of several different new vaccines, their varying supply levels, effectiveness, and immunity duration across different ethnic populations, together with natural infection rates, will have an impact on when each country can reach herd immunity (ranging from 15.3% to 77.1%). Here we estimate the population proportions still required to gain immunity (ranging from 0.01% to 48.8%) to reach an overall herd immunity level to stop the exponential virus spread in 32 selected countries.
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