Estimating air pollutant emissions from crop residue open burning through a calculation of open burning proportion based on satellite-derived fire radiative energy

Crop residue open burning has substantial negative effects on air quality, human health, and climate change, and accurate and timely estimates of its air pollutant emissions are essential. Open burning proportion (OBP) is the key parameter in estimating the emission from the crop residue open burning by bottom-up method. However, the OBP is mainly obtained by field investigation, which consumes much time, manpower and financial resources, leading to the OBP data deficient seriously. In this study, the significant logarithmic relations were found between OBP and fire radiative energy (FRE), and then the FRE-based OBP estimation models were developed for different regions of China. The comparison between the FRE-based OBP and the field-investigated OBP illustrated the reliability of the developed models (r = 0.71, NMB = -8% and NME = 25%). The OBPs of different municipalities/provinces in mainland China from 2003 to 2018 were further calculated. The results showed that the estimated OBP variation exhibited fluctuating upward trend with annual mean growth rate of 3.7% from 2003 to 2014, while dramatically decreased with annual mean reduction rate of 5.9% from 2014 to 2018. The estimation accuracy of emission from open biomass burning can also be can be significantly improved by basing on the year-specific OBP, compared with the calculation based on fixed OBP. The annual PM_2.5 emissions would decrease 4.5%-25.9% and increase 6.6%-30.7% in the scenarios of a fixed OBP during 2003-2014 and 2014-2018, respectively. The developed models complemented the severely missing OBP data of mainland China for the first time. By combining the advantages of bottom-up approach and FRE method, the proposed FRE-based models can avoid their disadvantages, and can help to get more accurately and timely emissions from crop residue open burning.