Individualized conditional survival nomograms for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with...

Conditional survival (CS) considers the time already survived after surgery when estimating the survival probability, which may provide further useful prognostic information.

To evaluate CS in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and to create CS nomograms predicting the conditional probability of survival after proctectomy.

Consecutive patients with LARC who received nCRT followed by radical resection between 2011 and 2016 were identified. CS was defined as the probability of surviving y years after already surviving for x years. The formula used for CS was CS(x|y) = S(x + y)/S(x), where S(x) represents the survival at x years. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 5-year conditional overall survival (cOS) and conditional recurrence-free survival (cRFS).

A total of 785 patients were included. The median follow-up time was 65.5 months. The probability of achieving 5-year survival after surgery for cancer increases with additional survival time. Maximum tumor diameter, distance from the anal verge, preoperative CA19-9 level, ypTNM stage and perineural invasion were independent predictors of OS, while maximum tumor diameter, distance from the anal verge, ypTNM stage and perineural invasion were independent risk factors for RFS. The nomograms predicted 5-year cOS and cRFS using these predictors and the time already survived. The online calculator can be accessed at http://www.rectalcancer.top/webcalculator.

The proposed nomograms predict survival in patients after surgery, taking the time already survived into account.