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A Nomogram for Predicting Risk of Thromboembolism in Gastric Cancer Patients Receiving Chemotherapy
Hai-Liang Yuan1,2, Xiang Zhang2, Yan Li1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Beilun Branch of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, Ningbo, China.
Frontiers in Oncology
|June 14, 2021
Summary
This study developed a nomogram to predict thromboembolism (TE) in gastric cancer (GC) patients undergoing chemotherapy. The tool accurately identifies high-risk individuals, aiding personalized treatment decisions.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Medical Statistics
- Clinical Prediction Models
Background:
- Thromboembolism (TE) is a significant complication in gastric cancer (GC) patients receiving chemotherapy.
- Accurate prediction of TE risk is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting TE in GC patients undergoing chemotherapy.
- To assess the nomogram's predictive performance and clinical utility.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 544 GC patients from two medical centers, divided into training and validation cohorts.
- Development of a nomogram based on logistic regression analysis of clinical and laboratory parameters.
- Evaluation of nomogram performance using AUROC, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
Main Results:
- Key predictors identified: ECOG performance status, active cancer, central venous catheter use, and D-dimer levels.
- The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination and calibration with an AUROC of 0.875 (training), 0.832 (internal validation), and 0.807 (independent validation).
- DCA confirmed the nomogram's high clinical application value.
Conclusions:
- A validated nomogram is proposed for predicting TE in GC patients receiving chemotherapy.
- This tool can assist clinicians in making timely, personalized decisions for managing TE risk in different patient populations.
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