Evaluation of Molly model predictions of ruminal fermentation, nutrient digestion, and performance by dairy cows...

Several studies have been conducted to improve grazing management and supplementation in pasture-based systems. However, it is necessary to develop tools that integrate the available information linking the representation of biological processes with animal performance for use in decision making. The objective of this study was to evaluate the precision and accuracy of the Molly cow model predictions of ruminal fermentation, nutrient digestion, and animal performance by cows consuming pasture-based diets to identify model strengths and weaknesses, and to derive new digestive parameters when relevant. Model modifications for adipose tissue, protein synthesis in lean body mass and viscera representation were included. Data used for model evaluations were collected from 25 publications containing 115 treatment means sourced from studies conducted with lactating dairy cattle. The inclusion criteria were that diets contained ≥45% perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.), and that dry matter intake, dietary ingredient composition, and nutrient digestion observations were reported. Animal performance and N excretion variables were also included if they were reported. Model performance was assessed before and after model reparameterization of selected digestive parameters, global sensitivity analysis was conducted after reparameterization, and a 5-fold cross evaluation was performed. Although rumen fermentation predictions were not significantly improved, rumen volatile fatty acids absorption rates were recalculated, which improved the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for rumen propionate and ammonia concentration predictions but decreased CCC for acetate predictions. Similar degradation rates of crude protein were observed for grass and total mixed ration diets, but rumen-undegradable protein predictions seemed to be affected by the solubility of the protein source as was the intestinal digestibility coefficient. Ruminal fiber degradation was greater after reparameterization, driven primarily by hemicellulose degradation. Predictions of ruminal and fecal outflow of neutral detergent fiber and acid detergent fiber, as well as total fecal output predictions, improved significantly after reparameterization. Blood urea N and urinary N excretion predictions resulted in similar accuracy using both sets of model parameters, whereas fecal N excretion predictions were significantly improved after reparameterization. Body weight and body condition score predictions were greatly improved after model modifications and reparameterization. Before reparameterization, yield predictions for daily milk, milk fat, milk protein, and milk lactose were greatly overestimated (mean bias of 61.0, 58.7, 73.7, and 64.6% of mean squared error, respectively). Although this problem was partially addressed by model modifications and reparameterization (mean bias of 3.2, 1.1, 1.7, and 0.4% of mean squared error, respectively), CCC values were still small. The ability of the model to predict grass digestion and animal performance in dairy cows consuming pasture-based diets was improved, demonstrating the applicability of this model to these productive systems. However, the failure to predict grass digestion based on standard model inputs without reparameterization indicates there are still fundamental challenges in characterizing feeds for this model.