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Immune amnesia induced by measles and its effects on concurrent epidemics
Guillermo B Morales1, Miguel A Muñoz1
1Departamento de Electromagnetismo y Física de la Materia, e Instituto Carlos I de Física Teórica y Computacional, Universidad de Granada, E-18071 Granada, Spain.
Abstract:
It has been recently discovered that the measles virus can damage pre-existing immunological memory, destroying B lymphocytes and reducing the diversity of non-specific B cells of the infected host. In particular, this implies that previously acquired immunization from vaccination or direct exposition to other pathogens could be partially erased in a phenomenon named 'immune amnesia', whose effects can become particularly worrisome given the actual rise of anti-vaccination movements. Here, we present the first attempt to incorporate immune amnesia into standard models of epidemic spreading by proposing a simple model for the spreading of two concurrent pathogens causing measles and another generic disease. Different analyses confirm that immune amnesia can have important consequences for epidemic spreading, significantly altering the vaccination coverage required to reach herd immunity. We also uncover the existence of novel propagating and endemic phases induced by immune amnesia. Finally, we discuss the meaning and consequences of our results and their relation with, e.g. immunization strategies, together with the possibility that explosive types of transitions may emerge, making immune-amnesia effects particularly dramatic. This work opens the door to further developments and analyses of immune-amnesia effects, contributing also to the theory of interacting epidemics on complex networks.
Insights
Measles virus causes immune amnesia, erasing prior immunity and impacting herd immunity thresholds. This immune amnesia can alter epidemic dynamics and vaccination strategies for infectious diseases.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Measles virus infection can deplete immunological memory, specifically B lymphocytes, leading to a phenomenon termed "immune amnesia."
- This immune amnesia can compromise existing immunity from vaccination or prior infections, raising concerns amid rising anti-vaccination movements.
- The impact of immune amnesia on population-level disease dynamics and herd immunity has not been previously modeled.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a mathematical model incorporating immune amnesia into the study of epidemic spreading.
- To investigate the effects of measles-induced immune amnesia on the dynamics of concurrent infectious diseases.
- To analyze how immune amnesia influences vaccination coverage requirements for herd immunity.
Main Methods:
- Development of a novel mathematical model for the spread of two concurrent pathogens, including one causing measles with immune amnesia effects.
- Analysis of the model to identify different epidemic phases and their dependence on disease parameters and immune amnesia.
- Investigation of vaccination coverage thresholds required to achieve herd immunity under conditions of immune amnesia.
Main Results:
- Immune amnesia significantly alters the vaccination coverage needed to achieve herd immunity.
- The model reveals novel propagating and endemic phases induced by the immune amnesia phenomenon.
- Potential for explosive transitions in epidemic dynamics due to immune amnesia, leading to dramatic effects.
Conclusions:
- Immune amnesia is a critical factor that can profoundly impact infectious disease dynamics and public health interventions.
- The findings underscore the importance of considering immune amnesia in vaccination strategies and epidemic control.
- This research provides a foundation for further studies on immune amnesia and its role in interacting epidemics on complex networks.
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