English Language Proficiency Among Older Migrants in Australia, 2016-2046.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Gerontology
• Sociolinguistics

Background:

• Australia's population is increasingly diverse, with growing numbers of older migrants.
• Understanding English language proficiency among this demographic is crucial for aged care planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project English language proficiency levels among Australia's future older migrant population.
• To identify demographic shifts in English proficiency among migrants to mid-century.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a modified cohort-component model.
• Incorporated detailed language proficiency transition probabilities.
• Projected birthplace populations by English proficiency to 2050.

Main Results:

• Currently, most older migrants with poor English proficiency are European-born.
• Projected future shift shows an increase in Asian-born migrants with poor English proficiency, particularly from China and Southeast Asia.
• Growth in the poorly proficient older migrant population is significantly lower than those with good proficiency or from English-speaking households.

Conclusions:

• While English proficiency is projected to improve overall, a significant cohort of older Asian migrants with poor English proficiency will emerge.
• Ethno-specific aged care services remain important, as cultural factors beyond language influence aged care perceptions.