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Spatial-temporal pattern of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Tatiana P Portella1, Roberto A Kraenkel2

  • 1Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. portellatp@gmail.com.

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|June 17, 2021
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Summary

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence decreased overall in Brazil, but specific regions show increasing trends and emerging hotspots. Targeted surveillance and vector control are crucial for these high-risk areas.

Keywords:
BrazilCutaneous leishmaniasisEmerging hotspotSpatiotemporal clusterTemporal trend

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Spatial Analysis

Background:

  • Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with high incidence in Brazil.
  • Understanding CL spatiotemporal dynamics is vital for effective public health policies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of CL in Brazil using statistical approaches.
  • To identify high-incidence areas and changing trends of CL.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Brazilian Ministry of Health data from 2001-2017.
  • Employed Mann-Kendall trend test for temporal analysis and Kuldorff scan for spatiotemporal clusters.
  • Applied emerging hotspots analysis to identify and track high-risk areas.

Main Results:

  • Overall CL incidence declined, but 3.2% of municipalities showed increasing trends.
  • A primary cluster was identified in northern/central Brazil, with 21 secondary clusters in southern/southeastern regions.
  • High spatial-temporal variability in hotspots was detected, with specific emerging and intensifying hotspots in Amazonian states and Bahia.

Conclusions:

  • Statistical methods successfully identified key CL areas and temporal changes.
  • Areas with permanent, new, emerging, and intensifying hotspots require focused research, surveillance, and vector control.