Spatial-temporal pattern of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with high incidence in Brazil.
• Understanding CL spatiotemporal dynamics is vital for effective public health policies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of CL in Brazil using statistical approaches.
• To identify high-incidence areas and changing trends of CL.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Brazilian Ministry of Health data from 2001-2017.
• Employed Mann-Kendall trend test for temporal analysis and Kuldorff scan for spatiotemporal clusters.
• Applied emerging hotspots analysis to identify and track high-risk areas.

Main Results:

• Overall CL incidence declined, but 3.2% of municipalities showed increasing trends.
• A primary cluster was identified in northern/central Brazil, with 21 secondary clusters in southern/southeastern regions.
• High spatial-temporal variability in hotspots was detected, with specific emerging and intensifying hotspots in Amazonian states and Bahia.

Conclusions:

• Statistical methods successfully identified key CL areas and temporal changes.
• Areas with permanent, new, emerging, and intensifying hotspots require focused research, surveillance, and vector control.