Spatio-temporal variability of meteorological drought over India with footprints on agricultural production

The perception of spatio-temporal variability of drought is important in concerning the food security of a country. The native aim of this study is to extract the spatio-temporal variability of drought over India with implications on agriculture. We have opted for SPI-3 as the primary index for drought quantification. The spatio-temporal variability of SPI-3 is evaluated through empirical orthogonal functional (EOF) analysis to extract the prominent patterns of drought variability over the study region. The first two dominant patterns of SPI-3 explain (38%) the total variability and are mainly influenced by global teleconnections. The EOF patterns while subjected to spectrum analysis depict that the first mode shows 7.7 years of cycle and the second mode shows 2.6 years of the cycle. On seeing the interference of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on drought, we found that drought years are mainly influenced by ENSO with the same periodicity (2-7 years/cycle) as that of EOF patterns. The dynamics of drought show that the persistence of high pressure along East and West Asia during drought years has declined the monsoon activity over India leading to a shortfall of rainfall in monsoon months. On the other hand, we have found that the drought years have drawn implications on agricultural production by stifling the total annual production of most of the drought years. This research would have a wide range of applications in forecasting extreme events in India, allowing for better preparation and management of the water resource system during droughts.