Mortality risk related to heatwaves in Finland - Factors affecting vulnerability

Heatwaves are known to increase mortality. However, there is a need for more quantitative information on factors affecting sensitivity to the adverse health effects, particularly in countries with cool summer temperatures.

We evaluated mortality risk related to heatwave days in Finland. Risk was examined by age, sex, cause of death, and place of death, including health and social care facilities and homes. Mortality was also analysed for different patient subgroups in healthcare facilities.

Heatwaves were defined as periods when the daily average temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of that from May to August in 2000-2014 for ≥4 days. In addition to all heatwave days, risk was analysed for short (4-5 days) and long (≥10 days) heatwaves. Mortality analyses were based on linking registry data on i) daily non-accidental and cause-specific mortality and ii) admissions to a health or social care facility. Statistical analyses were conducted using generalised estimating equations for longitudinal data analysis, assuming a Poisson distribution for the daily mortality count.

During all heatwave days, mortality increased among those aged 65-74 years (6.7%, 95% confidence interval 2.9-10.8%) and ≥75 years (12.8%, 95% CI 9.8-15.9%). Mortality increased in both sexes, but the risk was higher in women. Positive associations were observed for deaths due to respiratory diseases, renal diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the nervous system, and cardiovascular diseases. Overall, effects were stronger for long than short heatwaves. During all heatwave days, mortality increased in healthcare facilities in outpatients (26.9%, 95% CI 17.3-37.2%) and inpatients. Among inpatients, the risk was higher in long-term inpatients (stay in ward > 30 days, 13.1%, 95% CI 8.6-17.7%) than others (5.8%, 95% CI 2.7-9.0%). At homes, mortality increased by 8.1% (95% CI 1.9-14.6%). Elevated risk estimates were also detected for social care facilities.

In Finland, a cold-climate Northern country, heatwaves increase mortality risk significantly among the elderly. Women are more susceptible than men, and many chronic diseases are important risk factors. To reduce heatwave-related deaths, preparedness should be improved particularly in hospital and healthcare centre wards, where the most vulnerable are long-term inpatients. However, measures are also needed to protect the elderly at home and in social care facilities, especially during prolonged hot periods.