COVID-19 impact on SADC labour markets: Evidence from high-frequency data and other sources

We assess the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the labour markets and economies of 16 SADC member states using a qualitative risk assessment on the basis of high-frequency Google Mobility data, monthly commodity price data, annual national accounts, and households survey labour market data. Our work highlights the ways in which these complementary datasets can be used by economists to conduct near real-time macroeconomic surveillance work covering labour market responses to macroeconomic shocks, including for seemingly information scarce African economies. We find that Angola, South Africa and Zimbabwe are at greatest risk across several labour market dimensions from the COVID-19 shock, followed by a second group of countries consisting of Comoros, DRC, Madagascar and Mauritius. Angola faces relatively less general employment risk than South Africa and Zimbabwe due to more muted decreases in mobility, though faces large pressure in its primary sector. These countries all face high risk in their youth populations, with Angola and Zimbabwe seeing high risks for women. South Africa faces more sector-specific risks in their secondary and tertiary sectors, as does Mauritius. Comoros, DRC and Madagascar all face high risks of employment loss for women and youth, with Comoros and Mauritius facing severe general employment risks.