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The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:
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Causal Approach to Determining the Environmental Risks of Seabed Mining.

Laura Kaikkonen1,2, Inari Helle2,3,4, Kirsi Kostamo5

  • 1Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.

Environmental Science & Technology
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Seabed mining poses environmental risks, but a new causal network model quantifies these impacts. This approach aids in risk assessment and permitting for sustainable marine resource use.

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Area of Science:

  • Marine geology and environmental science
  • Risk assessment and ecological modeling

Background:

  • Seabed mineral extraction is gaining interest, but environmental risks and uncertainties remain high.
  • Lack of observational data hinders thorough environmental risk evaluation for new maritime activities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine environmental risks associated with seabed mining using a causal, probabilistic network approach.
  • To inform quantitative risk assessments by outlining cause-effect pathways of seabed mining activities.

Main Methods:

  • Iterative model building with experts to identify causal connections between mining activities and ecosystem impacts.
  • Quantitative probabilistic modeling to estimate environmental consequences, demonstrated in the Baltic Sea.

Main Results:

  • The model provides quantitative estimates of benthic fauna mortality under various mining scenarios.
  • Highlights uncertainties in predicting mining impacts and outlines requirements for data-poor risk assessments.

Conclusions:

  • A predictive, quantitative risk assessment approach is crucial for permitting seabed mining.
  • The developed model supports permitting by detailing potential environmental impacts and allows for iterative updates with new data.