Causal Approach to Determining the Environmental Risks of Seabed Mining

Area of Science:

• Marine geology and environmental science
• Risk assessment and ecological modeling

Background:

• Seabed mineral extraction is gaining interest, but environmental risks and uncertainties remain high.
• Lack of observational data hinders thorough environmental risk evaluation for new maritime activities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine environmental risks associated with seabed mining using a causal, probabilistic network approach.
• To inform quantitative risk assessments by outlining cause-effect pathways of seabed mining activities.

Main Methods:

• Iterative model building with experts to identify causal connections between mining activities and ecosystem impacts.
• Quantitative probabilistic modeling to estimate environmental consequences, demonstrated in the Baltic Sea.

Main Results:

• The model provides quantitative estimates of benthic fauna mortality under various mining scenarios.
• Highlights uncertainties in predicting mining impacts and outlines requirements for data-poor risk assessments.

Conclusions:

• A predictive, quantitative risk assessment approach is crucial for permitting seabed mining.
• The developed model supports permitting by detailing potential environmental impacts and allows for iterative updates with new data.