Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Mitigation
• Forestry Science

Background:

• Afforestation is a key strategy for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation.
• The effectiveness of commercial forestry for climate mitigation is debated.
• A UK national planting strategy requires assessment of its GHG mitigation potential.

Purpose of the Study:

• To calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national afforestation strategy.
• To evaluate the impact of different forestry practices (species, harvesting) on mitigation.
• To assess the robustness of mitigation under future decarbonisation scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Dynamic life cycle assessment was employed.
• Scenarios included conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, and product substitution.
• GHG mitigation was estimated over a 100-year period.

Main Results:

• Forest growth rate is the primary determinant of cumulative GHG mitigation.
• Commercial afforestation could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO2e by 2120.
• Harvested forests generally provide greater GHG mitigation than unharvested ones, even with discounted substitution credits.

Conclusions:

• Commercial afforestation can be an effective GHG mitigation strategy.
• Mitigation potential is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood utilization.
• Strategic afforestation planning is crucial for maximizing climate benefits.