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Business cycle and mortality in Spain.

María Cervini-Plá^1,2, Judit Vall-Castelló^3,4

¹Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Edifici B. Campus UAB, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), 08193, Barcelona, Spain. maria.cervini@uab.cat.

The European Journal of Health Economics : HEPAC : Health Economics in Prevention and Care

|June 23, 2021

Summary

Economic downturns in Spain correlate with lower mortality rates, particularly for cardiovascular disease and cancer. This study reveals procyclical mortality across all demographics, with suicide being an exception for some educational groups.

Keywords:

Business cycle Health Mortality Recessions

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Area of Science:

Public Health
Health Economics
Socioeconomic Determinants of Health

Background:

Macroeconomic fluctuations significantly impact population health and mortality rates.
Previous research indicates mortality is often procyclical, decreasing during economic downturns.
Recent recessions present mixed findings on the procyclicality of mortality, necessitating further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in Spanish provinces (1999-2016).
To analyze the impact of unemployment on various causes of death.
To explore demographic and educational disparities in mortality-economy links.

Main Methods:

Utilized provincial data from Spain spanning 1999 to 2016.
Examined mortality trends in relation to business cycle fluctuations.
Disaggregated analysis by cause of death, sex, age group, and educational level.

Main Results:

Overall mortality is procyclical in Spain; mortality rates fall during economic recessions.
Procyclicality observed for deaths from cardiovascular disease, cancer, senility, transport accidents, and homicides.
Procyclical mortality is consistent across all age groups and both sexes, with specific causes varying by age.
Suicide exhibits countercyclical mortality for individuals with intermediate education levels.

Conclusions:

Spanish mortality demonstrates a clear procyclical pattern, aligning with economic downturns.
Specific causes of death and demographic groups show distinct patterns in their relationship with the business cycle.
Educational attainment influences the cyclicality of certain causes of death, such as suicide.