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Dating first cases of COVID-19
David L Roberts1, Jeremy S Rossman2,3, Ivan Jarić4,5
1Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology & Conservation, Marlowe Building, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, United Kingdom.
Plos Pathogens
|June 24, 2021
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic likely began earlier than previously thought, with the first cases in China possibly emerging in November 2019. This new dating model suggests a faster global spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Virology
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- The precise origin and timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic remain subjects of ongoing scientific inquiry.
- Growing evidence suggests a zoonotic spillover event predating the officially recognized timeline of December 2019.
Observation:
- Six countries exhibited exceptionally early COVID-19 cases, inconsistent with their primary case series.
- Analysis of early case data indicates potential origination dates prior to December 2019.
Findings:
- Novel methods were developed to accurately date the origin of COVID-19 cases.
- The model estimates the first COVID-19 case in China occurred around November 17, 2019 (95% CI October 4).
- SARS-CoV-2 likely emerged in China between early October and mid-November 2019, with global spread by January 2020.
Implications:
- The findings suggest a significantly earlier and more rapid global dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 than previously understood.
- The developed epidemiological dating approaches can be applied to estimate the arrival of other infectious diseases using limited data.
- This research reframes the early timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting public health response and future preparedness strategies.
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