A Correlation Study of Prognostic Risk Prediction for Colorectal Cancer Based on Autophagy Signature Genes

Autophagy plays a complex role in tumors, sometimes promoting cancer cell survival and sometimes inducing apoptosis, and its role in the colorectal tumor microenvironment is controversial. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of autophagy-related genes (ARGs) in colorectal cancer. We identified 37 differentially expressed autophagy-related genes by collecting TCGA colorectal tumor transcriptome data. A single-factor COX regression equation was used to identify 11 key prognostic genes, and a prognostic risk prediction model was constructed based on multifactor COX analysis. We classified patients into high and low risk groups according to prognostic risk parameters (p <0.001) and determined the prognostic value they possessed by survival analysis and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the training and test sets of internal tests. In a multifactorial independent prognostic analysis, this risk value could be used as an independent prognostic indicator (HR=1.167, 95% CI=1.078-1.264, P<0.001) and was a robust predictor without any staging interference. To make it more applicable to clinical procedures, we constructed nomogram based on risk parameters and parameters of key clinical characteristics. The area under ROC curve for 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 0.735 and 0.718, respectively. These will better enable us to monitor patient prognosis, thus improve patient outcomes.