Mortality in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study

Escherichia coli is the most common cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and mortality is an important aspect of burden of disease. Using a multinational population-based cohort of E. coli BSIs, our objectives were to evaluate 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate, and determine factors associated with each.

During 2014-2018, we identified 30-day deaths from all incident E. coli BSIs from surveillance nationally in Finland, and regionally in Sweden (Skaraborg) and Canada (Calgary, Sherbrooke, western interior). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate factors associated with 30-day case fatality risk. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion were year (2014-2018), region (five areas), age (< 70-years-old, ≥70-years-old), sex (female, male), third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance (susceptible, resistant), and location of onset (community-onset, hospital-onset). The European Union 28-country 2018 population was used to directly age and sex standardize mortality rates. We used a multivariable Poisson model to estimate factors associated with mortality rate, and year, region, age and sex were considered for inclusion.

From 38.7 million person-years of surveillance, we identified 2961 30-day deaths in 30,923 incident E. coli BSIs. The overall 30-day case fatality risk was 9.6% (2961/30923). Calgary, Skaraborg, and western interior had significantly increased odds of 30-day mortality compared to Finland. Hospital-onset and 3GC-resistant E. coli BSIs had significantly increased odds of mortality compared to community-onset and 3GC-susceptible. The significant association between age and odds of mortality varied with sex, and contrasts were used to interpret this interaction relationship. The overall standardized 30-day mortality rate was 8.5 deaths/100,000 person-years. Sherbrooke had a significantly lower 30-day mortality rate compared to Finland. Patients that were either ≥70-years-old or male both experienced significantly higher mortality rates than those < 70-years-old or female.

In our study populations, region, age, and sex were significantly associated with both 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate. Additionally, 3GC resistance and location of onset were significantly associated with 30-day case fatality risk. Escherichia coli BSIs caused a considerable burden of disease from 30-day mortality. When analyzing population-based mortality data, it is important to explore mortality through two lenses, mortality rate and case fatality risk.