Estimating the impacts of lockdown on Covid-19 cases in Nigeria

The study examines the extent to which lockdown measures impact on COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. Six indicators of lockdown entailing retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential, are considered. The empirical evidence is anchored on the negative binomial regression estimator, due to the count nature of the dataset on the daily cases of the virus. The study established the key following findings: First, retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, and workplaces are statistically significant and negatively signed as relevant predictors of the virus. Second, the impact of residential is positive and statistically significant at the conventional level. Lastly, the results are robust to an alternative estimator of Poisson Regression. The emanated policy message centres on the need to direct efforts toward ensuring total compliance to the lockdown rules as it holds the key to keeping the virus under check.