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Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.
Alexandros Nikas1, Alessia Elia2, Baptiste Boitier3
1Energy Policy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 26, 2021
Summary
Europe is not on track to meet its 2030 climate goals, despite current policies. Deeper decarbonisation offers energy security and job benefits, but requires significant investment in renewables and carbon capture.
Area of Science:
- Climate policy research
- Integrated assessment modelling
- Energy system analysis
Background:
- Stakeholder engagement in climate policy research is increasing, yet modelling scenarios often neglect stakeholder concerns.
- Existing climate models do not sufficiently trace scenario outputs back to stakeholder priorities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a model inter-comparison for the EU, aligning scenario logic and research questions with stakeholder concerns.
- To develop a scenario framework that extrapolates current policy efforts and explores future regional trajectories.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system, and sectoral models for the EU.
- Formulated scenario logic and research questions based on direct stakeholder input and concerns.
- Performed a model inter-comparison to analyze future emissions pathways.
Main Results:
- Europe is projected to exceed its pre-2020 emissions reduction targets but will likely miss the 2030 goal of 55% cuts.
- Future emissions in 2050 are estimated to range between 1.0-2.35 GtCO2.
- Transport electrification, carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment, and hydrogen diffusion are critical for deeper emissions reductions.
- Most hydrogen produced post-2040 is projected to be 'blue' hydrogen.
Conclusions:
- Current EU climate policies are insufficient to meet the 2030 emissions reduction targets.
- Deeper decarbonisation pathways present significant benefits for energy security and employment.
- Achieving ambitious climate goals necessitates moderate to high investment, primarily in renewable energy sources.
- The integration of CCS and hydrogen technologies is crucial for substantial emissions abatement.
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