Factors affecting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in school settings

Several studies have reported SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in schools, with a wide range of secondary attack rate (SAR; range: 0-100%). We aimed to examine key risk factors to better understand SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools.

We collected records of 39 SARS-CoV-2 school outbreaks globally published through July 2021 and compiled information on hypothesized risk factors. We utilized the directed acyclic graph (DAG) to conceptualize risk mechanisms, used logistic regression to examine each risk-factor group, and further built multi-risk models.

The best-fit model showed that the intensity of concurrent community transmission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.17 - 1.24, for each increase of 1 case per 10,000 persons per week), individualism (aOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.19 - 2.5, above vs. below the median) were associated higher risk, whereas preventive measures (aOR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.17 - 0.29, distancing and masking vs. none) and higher population immunity (aOR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.22 - 0.35) were associated with lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools. Compared to students in pre-schools, the aOR was 0.35 (95% CI: 0.23 - 0.54) for students in primary schools and 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9 - 1.88) for students in high schools.

Preventive measures in schools (e.g. social distancing and mask-wearing) and communal efforts to lower transmission and increase vaccination uptake (i.e. vaccine-induced population immunity) in the community should be taken to collectively reduce transmission and protect children in schools. Flexible reopening policies may be considered for different levels of schools given their risk differences.