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Glacial changes over the Himalayan Beas basin under global warming.

Ankur Dixit1, Sandeep Sahany2, Anil V Kulkarni3

  • 1Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, 110016, India.

Journal of Environmental Management
|July 1, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Himalayan glaciers are rapidly shrinking, with significant volume loss projected by 2040 under both moderate and high emissions scenarios. Glacier melt rates are similar until 2050, after which higher emissions lead to accelerated glacier loss.

Keywords:
Climate changeGlaciers meltGlobal warmingMass balanceOGGMThe Himalayas

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Area of Science:

  • Glaciology
  • Climate Science
  • Himalayan Environmental Studies

Background:

  • Glacier dynamics are critical indicators of climate change impacts.
  • The North-Western Himalayas are particularly vulnerable to warming trends.
  • Understanding glacier response to different emissions scenarios is crucial for water resource management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To simulate and analyze glacier dynamics in the Beas basin under present and future climate scenarios.
  • To project glacier area and volume loss under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5.
  • To assess changes in temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns influencing glacier melt.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Open Global Glacier Model, calibrated for the Beas basin.
  • Performed simulations for the present climate (1980-2015) using ERA-Interim data.
  • Conducted future climate projections (2006-2100) using CMIP5 model outputs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Main Results:

  • 50% of glacier volume was lost by 2011 compared to 1980 levels.
  • Significant decreasing trends in glacier area and volume observed.
  • Future projections indicate ~75% loss by 2040 and ~90% by 2084-2094, with accelerated loss under RCP8.5 after 2050.
  • Near-surface air temperature shows a significant increasing trend under both scenarios.
  • Snowfall shows a decreasing trend under both scenarios, particularly pronounced under RCP8.5.

Conclusions:

  • Himalayan glaciers are experiencing substantial and accelerating volume loss.
  • Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios project severe glacier retreat, impacting regional hydrology.
  • Urgent climate mitigation is necessary to reduce the long-term threat to Himalayan glaciers and associated water resources.