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Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland

Jamie M Madden1, Simon More1, Conor Teljeur2

  • 1Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, D04 W6F6 Dublin, Ireland.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|July 2, 2021
PubMed

Insights

COVID-19 incidence in Ireland shows spatial variation and links to deprivation. Lockdown measures reduced mobility, and prioritizing deprived, densely populated areas for vaccination may be effective.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Spatial Analysis

Background:

  • COVID-19 significantly impacted Ireland, necessitating an understanding of disease spread.
  • Mobility patterns and socioeconomic factors are crucial in disease transmission dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the spatio-temporal trends of COVID-19 incidence in Ireland.
  • To assess the impact of lockdown restrictions on population mobility.
  • To investigate the relationship between socioeconomic deprivation, population density, and COVID-19 cases.

Main Methods:

  • Standardized incidence ratios were calculated and mapped at the electoral division level.
  • Mobility trends were analyzed using aggregated mobile phone data.
  • A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model (Besag, York and Mollié) was employed to assess covariate associations.

Main Results:

  • Three distinct waves of COVID-19 were observed, with significant mobility reductions during lockdowns.
  • Higher COVID-19 incidence was associated with higher deprivation index, even after adjusting for population density and overcrowding.
  • Substantial spatial heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across Ireland was identified.

Conclusions:

  • Targeted surveillance and localized lockdown measures can help control COVID-19 transmission.
  • Prioritizing vaccination rollout in deprived, densely populated areas may mitigate infection and hospitalization risks.

Keywords:
COVID-19disease mappingspatial statisticsspatio-temporalstandardised incidence ratio

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