Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of CO₂ Emissions Based on LMDI and Two-Dimensional Decoupling Model in Gansu...

Currently, little attention has been paid to reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of Gansu, and the two-dimensional decoupling model has been rarely used to study the relationship between the economic development and CO₂ emissions, especially in western China (e.g., Gansu). Thus, here, we first used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to decompose the driving factors of Gansu's CO₂ emissions between 2000-2017 and then analyzed the decoupling relationship by using the two-dimensional model. Results showed: (1) Gansu's CO₂ emissions increased from 7805.70 × 10⁴ t in 2000 to 19,896.05 × 10⁴ t in 2017. The secondary industry accounted for the largest proportion in Gansu's CO₂ emissions, followed by the tertiary industry and the primary industry. (2) The economic output showed the dominant driving effect on Gansu's CO₂ emissions growth with the cumulative contribution rate of 201.94%, followed by the effects of industrial structure, population size, and energy structure, and their cumulative contribution rates were 9.68%, 7.81%, and 3.05%, respectively. In contrast, the energy intensity effect presented the most obvious mitigating effect with the cumulative contribution rate of -122.49%. (3) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) between CO₂ emissions and economic growth was demonstrated the inverted U-shape in Gansu. The two-dimensional decoupling status was the low level-weak decoupling (WD-LE) during 2000-2017. Thus, dropping the proportion of the secondary industry, reducing the use of carbon-intensive fuel like coal, introducing advanced technologies, and increasing the investment of new energy might effectively restrain the growth of Gansu's CO₂ emissions.